Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer Still Prefers Bitcoin Over Gold, With a Risk-Off Caveat
Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer says he still prefers Bitcoin to gold, even though both assets have sold off. But he also says they have recently moved more closely with equities, which complicates the case for either as a reliable shelter when markets turn sour.
- Timmer bases his preference on Bitcoin’s relative performance but gives no comparison period.
- He says Bitcoin and gold are each “60-70% correlated” with the S&P 500, without explaining how he measured it.
- His past comments on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle do not promise further gains.
“I still prefer Bitcoin over gold for the time being, and its relative price is holding up even as both assets have sold off, ” Timmer wrote in an X post dated November 7, 2026, according to CryptoNews.net.
That’s a relative judgment. Timmer did not say Bitcoin was rising or that gold had lost its value as an asset. He also gave no time frame or price data for the comparison, leaving readers unable to judge how much better Bitcoin had held up during the period he was watching. His preference should not be taken as an official Fidelity investment recommendation.
Bitcoin and gold have joined the risk-off move
Timmer’s other observation is a warning against treating either asset as an automatic hedge against falling stocks. In a separate X post, he said Bitcoin and gold had become more correlated with equities and joined the “risk-off party” in recent weeks.
“Both assets are 60-70% correlated to the SPX right now, ” Timmer wrote.
SPX commonly refers to the S&P 500 index. Correlation measures how closely two assets move together over a given period. It does not show that one causes the other. Timmer did not specify the measurement window, data series or calculation behind his 60-70% estimate. Those choices can affect the result, so the figure is best understood as his description of recent market behavior, not a standardized, independently verified reading.
The broader point matters: assets often described as alternatives to stocks can fall alongside them during market stress. Evidence from gold, the US dollar, and Bitcoin can inform discussions about diversification and safe-haven behavior, but a period of correlation does not settle either asset’s long-term investment case. It does undercut the simple pitch that Bitcoin or gold will reliably protect a portfolio from every equity sell-off. Bitcoin has also shown strength in some downturn recoveries, according to a study of crisis recovery.
A cycle model is not a price forecast
In mid-October 2024, Timmer said a new Bitcoin four-year-cycle bull market “could be underway, ” citing “power law patterns.” He added: “There doesn't seem to be a narrative, but then again, bull markets rarely start with one.”
A power law is a mathematical relationship that describes patterns across different scales. In Bitcoin analysis, a power-law model can help frame long-term price trends. But a pattern fitted to historical prices cannot guarantee the trend will continue or that a projected support level will hold.
A later view attributed to Timmer was more cautious. CoinDesk reported on July 12, 2026, that Bitcoin was approaching a lower power-law support area near $58, 000, with the cryptocurrency around $62, 700 at the time. Timmer was not calling a bottom. He said Bitcoin could trade sideways near support for months without a liquidity catalyst.
The two comments can both be true. A possible bull-market phase does not rule out an extended slump or sideways trading. Timmer’s 2024 remark should not be treated as an unconditional prediction of imminent gains. Models can help investors consider different scenarios, but they cannot remove Bitcoin’s volatility or the risk that market conditions change. Those risks matter alongside Bitcoin’s potential benefits for investors assessing how it fits into a broader portfolio.
Key questions about Timmer’s Bitcoin view
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Does Timmer prefer Bitcoin or gold?
He says he prefers Bitcoin “for the time being, ” citing its relative performance as both assets sold off. He did not specify the comparison period.
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Are Bitcoin and gold dependable hedges against stocks?
Not necessarily. Timmer says both have recently become more correlated with equities, but he gave no measurement window or methodology for his 60-70% estimate. His view that Bitcoin and gold can complement each other against monetary expansion does not make either a guaranteed hedge in every market sell-off.
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Does Timmer’s power-law analysis confirm a Bitcoin bull market?
No. In 2024, he said a new four-year-cycle bull market could be underway. In 2026, he was not calling a bottom and described a possible period of sideways trading.
