Coinbase Q3 profit reaches $719M as prediction-market revenue run rate tops $200M
Coinbase reported third-quarter 2025 net income of $719 million, including $715 million in unrealized gains on cryptocurrency investments. Revenue fell 35% year over year as weaker trading hit the exchange’s core business.
- Revenue was $1.22 billion, down 35% year over year.
- Adjusted net income was $78 million.
- Prediction markets exceeded a $200 million annualized revenue run rate, not $200 million in revenue earned over a year.
- Coinbase reported a 10.7% share of global crypto trading volume.
In its October 29 earnings release, Coinbase highlighted growth in prediction markets, subscriptions, USDC holdings and tokenized-stock activity. The figures point to a business expanding beyond spot trading, but they don’t show how much those newer products contribute to revenue or profit. A sharp drop in transaction revenue also showed how much Coinbase still depends on crypto-market activity.
Trading weakness weighs on revenue
Coinbase reported $1.22 billion in third-quarter revenue, down from $1.87 billion a year earlier. Transaction revenue fell 44% year over year to $590 million.
CFO Alesia Haas said cryptocurrency trading volumes across the market fell 10% during the quarter. She also pointed to a stronger September, when total crypto market capitalization rose 37% from the end of June.
Subscription and services revenue was $570 million, down 20% year over year but up 3% from the second quarter. Coinbase said it accounted for 49% of net revenue. That figure is separate from the $1.22 billion in total revenue. Transaction revenue and subscription-and-services revenue together don’t account for all of Coinbase’s reported revenue.
Operating income fell to $62 million from $481 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA, a company-defined measure of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization that includes adjustments, was $333 million. That was up 60% from the second quarter but down 58% from $801 million in the third quarter of 2024. Coinbase said it has posted positive adjusted EBITDA for 15 consecutive quarters.
What Coinbase’s $719 million profit does and doesn’t show
Net income rose 66% from $433 million a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share were $2.51. Coinbase attributed $715 million of its third-quarter net income to unrealized gains on cryptocurrency investments.
An unrealized gain is an increase in an investment’s reported value that hasn’t necessarily been locked in by a sale. It isn’t the same as cash received from selling an asset. Coinbase also reported adjusted net income of $78 million, a company-defined measure that excludes investment-related gains and other adjustments.
Coinbase didn’t specify which investments or valuation changes produced the $715 million gain. It also didn’t detail every adjustment behind adjusted net income. That adjusted figure shouldn’t be treated as a direct measure of recurring operating performance. The two figures answer different questions: reported net income includes the effect of investment valuations, while adjusted net income removes certain items under Coinbase’s methodology.
Prediction markets show early traction, but revenue details are limited
Coinbase said its prediction-markets business exceeded $200 million in annualized revenue during the quarter. Annualized revenue is a run rate, meaning it projects the current pace of activity across a year. It doesn’t mean Coinbase had already earned $200 million over 12 months. The company didn’t disclose the business’s absolute quarterly revenue or profit.
Coinbase also said daily traders increased by more than 60% from the previous quarter. CEO Brian Armstrong said, “Prediction markets have been one of the fastest-growing products in Coinbase history, ” and noted that crypto-linked contracts supported activity during slower sports months.
Haas described prediction markets as a revenue source “less closely tied to cryptocurrency price volatility.” That could help diversify activity when crypto prices are subdued. Coinbase also said trading the contracts generated additional spot volume. But growth in users and a run-rate figure don’t prove the product is durably profitable. The company hasn’t disclosed detailed revenue, cost or risk figures for it.
Trading share, derivatives and customer balances
Coinbase reported a 10.7% share of global cryptocurrency trading volume, its fourth consecutive quarterly gain. The company didn’t provide its calculation methodology or explain how much of that figure came from spot trading versus derivatives. It’s best read as Coinbase’s own reported measure, not a clearly defined share of the spot market.
The company said cryptocurrency derivatives volume recorded 179% compound annual growth over the previous two years. Derivatives are contracts whose value is linked to an underlying asset or market. Unlike spot trades, they don’t necessarily involve buying or selling the asset directly.
Coinbase also said the crypto assets held on its platform represented 12.5% of total cryptocurrency market capitalization, returning to that level. In other words, this is the company’s measure of the value of assets held on its platform compared with the value of the broader crypto market. It doesn’t measure Coinbase’s share of trading.
Average USDC held in Coinbase products reached a record $22 billion, up 49% year over year and close to 30% of average USDC market capitalization during the quarter, according to the company. Coinbase said average USDC holdings had set records for 14 consecutive quarters.
Paid Coinbase One subscribers increased 24% year over year. Coinbase said subscribers generated 3.5 times the average revenue per user and held 4.2 times the balances of other customers. The company also reported that its average daily loan book balance increased 74% year over year, but didn’t provide details here about the loan products, terms or risks.
Tokenized stock activity grows on Base
Coinbase said cumulative trading volume for tokenized stocks on Base exceeded $1 billion since launch. The company began its rollout in August with products linked to Apple, Nvidia, Meta and Alphabet. In September, it added six more stock tokens, including securities linked to Amazon, Microsoft and Tesla.
The products are restricted to eligible investors outside the United States. Coinbase described them as linked to underlying shares through a custody arrangement. The details provided don’t establish what ownership or redemption rights token holders have, or explain the arrangement’s legal and operational protections.
Morpho introduced USDC lending markets for five of the tokenized stock assets, allowing eligible holders to use them as collateral. That gives the tokens a potential use beyond trading, but lending against collateral carries its own risks. The reported figures didn’t disclose the markets’ specific terms.
Key questions and answers
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How much revenue did Coinbase report in Q3 2025?
$1.22 billion, down 35% from the third quarter of 2024.
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Why was adjusted net income much lower than reported net income?
Coinbase said $715 million of its $719 million net income came from unrealized gains on crypto investments. Adjusted net income, which excludes investment-related gains and other adjustments, was $78 million.
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Did Coinbase earn $200 million from prediction markets?
Not over a full year, based on the figure disclosed. The business exceeded a $200 million annualized revenue run rate, which projects its current pace across a year. Coinbase didn’t provide its absolute quarterly revenue.
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How much USDC was held in Coinbase products on average?
A record $22 billion, according to Coinbase.
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How much tokenized-stock trading volume was recorded on Base?
More than $1 billion cumulatively since launch, according to Coinbase.
Coinbase is adding products that could bring more customer activity beyond spot crypto trading. The key test is whether prediction markets, subscriptions, lending and tokenized assets generate measurable, repeatable revenue and earnings, rather than just more users, larger balances or higher annualized run rates. For now, the quarter’s financial picture is clear: trading revenue fell sharply, while unrealized investment gains accounted for most of the headline profit.
