Brazilian Crypto Trading Spiked Ahead of the Lula-Bolsonaro Runoff
Corporate accounts made up 78% of Mercado Bitcoin’s trading volume on October 25, 2022, as businesses sought ways to manage uncertainty around Brazil’s currency ahead of the presidential runoff. Trading in dollar-linked stablecoins and Bitcoin rose sharply. But volume alone cannot show whether companies were net buyers or simply holding the assets as a hedge.
- Corporate accounts represented 78% of Mercado Bitcoin’s October 25 volume.
- Across 10 monitored venues, USDT trading against the real rose 150% and USDC turnover increased 318%.
- Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30, 2022, runoff, not Flávio Bolsonaro.
- The reported October 26 market moves came before the result, so they cannot be described as a reaction to Lula’s victory.
Businesses seek dollar-linked assets
Mercado Bitcoin said corporate accounts made up 78% of its October 25 trading volume, while retail accounts accounted for 22%. The exchange reported that USDT trading volume was nearly 800% higher than on the previous Sunday, while Bitcoin trading was up 865%. USDT activity also topped three times the average of the previous four Sundays.
These figures show percentage increases, not the total amount traded. Mercado Bitcoin did not disclose absolute volumes. The exchange said much of the activity came from companies seeking protection from uncertainty around the Brazilian real. That explanation is plausible, but the data do not reveal the motive behind each trade.
USDT and USDC are stablecoins designed to track the U.S. dollar. They give users access to dollar-linked assets through crypto markets, which may keep trading outside traditional foreign-exchange hours. That does not guarantee access to cash at any time. Local payment services, market liquidity and redemption arrangements can still limit when and how users convert or withdraw funds.
Mercado Bitcoin research analyst Pedro Fontes said stablecoins let investors hold dollar-denominated assets while traditional FX markets are closed. The distinction matters: a token that tracks the dollar is not a bank deposit. Its practical value depends on the issuer and the user’s ability to trade or redeem it.
Trading rose across monitored venues
Market tracker Biscoint reported that USDT trading against the real rose 150% from the previous Sunday across 10 monitored venues, while USDC turnover increased 318%. By Monday, combined USDT and USDC turnover had reached 1.84 billion reais, about $350 million, and was 65% above the comparable figure a week earlier.
The reported dataset also recorded more than 1, 336 BTC traded on Monday, over nine times the previous Monday’s volume. On Binance, trading in Bitcoin priced in reais, or BTC/BRL, increased 370%, while trading in BTC/USDT declined 25%.
Bitcoin’s price rose 9.4% in reais but fell 0.2% against USDT. A weakening real can push Bitcoin’s local-currency price higher even when its price in a dollar-linked unit is flat or down. The different volumes in the two Binance pairs show activity by pair, but do not explain the price change on their own.
The election timeline matters
Brazil’s 2022 presidential runoff took place on October 30. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, not Bolsonaro’s son Flávio. The reported Mercado Bitcoin surge on October 25 came before the runoff, while the result was still uncertain.
The timing also matters when assessing claims about the market reaction. October 26 was four days before the vote, so market moves that day could not have been a response to Lula’s eventual victory. Figures describing a 14% Ibovespa fall and a more-than-8% rise in the dollar against the real on October 26 do not fit a post-election account. They should not be treated as evidence of a reaction to the result.
Markets responded positively after the first round on October 2, when Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula. The Ibovespa rose 7.7%, and the real strengthened by more than 4% against the dollar. Ahead of the runoff, investors weighed Lula’s proposals for additional social spending against concerns about government borrowing and limited room to raise revenue.
On October 24, prediction-market platform Kalshi assigned Bolsonaro an 84% chance of winning. That was a market-implied probability, a figure inferred from trading prices, not an opinion-poll result or a guarantee. Conventional polls showed a close contest. Brazil had restricted access to Kalshi and Polymarket in April, leaving their election contracts unavailable through authorized domestic channels.
What trading volume can, and cannot, show
Trading volume measures how much was traded, not the net amount moving in one direction. Every completed trade has a buyer and a seller. So the figures do not establish how much stablecoin companies ultimately held, whether money left Brazil, or what share of activity was specifically election hedging.
The 78% corporate share applies to Mercado Bitcoin alone. Biscoint’s figures show that activity rose across the 10 venues it monitored, but they do not establish what share of trading on those platforms came from corporate accounts.
Oversight remains part of the picture
Brazil is tightening oversight of crypto businesses and transactions. The International Monetary Fund has raised concerns about stablecoin flows and cross-border monitoring. That scrutiny does not amount to a ban on domestic trading in dollar-backed tokens. It reflects regulators’ interest in how funds move through and beyond the financial system.
For businesses facing currency uncertainty, stablecoins can offer a convenient way to get dollar-linked exposure. The reported surge shows that traders used crypto markets more actively around the election. It does not prove that companies made lasting shifts into stablecoins or that those tokens are a risk-free hedge.
Key questions and answers
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What share of Mercado Bitcoin’s October 25 volume came from corporate accounts?
Corporate accounts represented 78%, compared with 22% for retail accounts. That figure applies to Mercado Bitcoin, not the wider Brazilian market.
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Does higher stablecoin turnover prove capital flight?
No. Turnover includes both purchases and sales and does not show net flows or how much traders kept in stablecoins.
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Why did Bitcoin rise in reais but fall against USDT?
A weaker real can lift Bitcoin’s price in reais even when its USDT price is flat or lower. The reported figures put the respective moves at up 9.4% and down 0.2%.
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Was Kalshi’s 84% estimate an opinion poll?
No. It was a probability implied by trading on the prediction market, not a survey result or a guarantee of the outcome.
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Did the October 26 market moves follow Lula’s victory?
No. Brazil’s runoff was held on October 30, 2022, so October 26 market moves came before the result.
