Arkham Links Wallets Holding Nearly 3% of PEPE to Justin Sun
On October 27, blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence estimated that wallets it links to Justin Sun held 2.82% of PEPE’s supply, worth about $51.25 million at the time. That figure is based on address attribution. It does not prove Sun beneficially owns every token or that the position could be sold for its quoted value.
- Two reported Poloniex withdrawals: 11.85 trillion PEPE combined.
- Ownership remains an attribution: Arkham’s estimate includes addresses it predicts belong to Sun.
- Withdrawal value is not cost basis: The transfers do not show what the tokens originally cost.
- What to monitor: Updated wallet balances, exchange movements, market liquidity and the status of any proposed PEPE investment product.
What the reported withdrawals show
Coverage of the transfers put the October 17 Poloniex withdrawal at about 7.2 trillion PEPE, valued at $28.44 million when recorded. A second withdrawal, on October 26, was 4.65 trillion PEPE, valued at $20.32 million. Combined, the transfers totaled 11.85 trillion tokens, with reported values of $48.76 million at the time of withdrawal.
Those figures show token movements and their estimated value at the time, not verified purchase prices. An exchange withdrawal does not reveal when the tokens were acquired or what the owner paid. Trades made inside an exchange may also appear in its internal customer ledger rather than as separate blockchain transfers.
PEPE’s listed supply is 420.69 trillion tokens. So 11.85 trillion amounts to about 2.82% of supply: roughly 1.71% for the first withdrawal and 1.11% for the second. The math matches Arkham’s estimate, but it does not independently confirm who owns the wallets or what their current balances are.
Arkham’s estimate reportedly combines addresses it identifies as Sun’s official wallets with addresses it predicts belong to him. A predicted label is an analytics attribution, not a signed acknowledgment from the person named. The careful description is wallets Arkham links to Sun, not a confirmed personal holding.
A quoted wallet value is not sale proceeds
A portfolio’s quoted value usually comes from multiplying its token balance by a reference price. That does not mean buyers are ready to take the entire position at that price. A large order can absorb the highest bids and sell at progressively lower prices. That effect is known as price impact.
If the quantity stayed fixed at 11.85 trillion PEPE, every $0.000001 change in the token price would shift its quoted value by $11.85 million. At $0.000004, the position would be worth $47.4 million on paper. At $0.000005, it would be $59.25 million, and at $0.000006, $71.1 million. These are arithmetic examples, not estimates of what a sale would bring in.
Illustrative only, not observed PEPE order-book data: Suppose a sale of 1.185 trillion PEPE met buyers for 300 billion at $0.0000050, 400 billion at $0.0000049 and 485 billion at $0.0000048. Gross proceeds would be about $5.788 million before fees, around $137, 000 less than valuing every token at the top bid of $0.0000050. Actual proceeds would depend on the market’s liquidity and conditions when the order was placed.
What to monitor
Wallet balances and labels. A new balance check could change the estimated position’s value or size. Arkham could also revise its predicted labels. Either change would affect the attribution, but would not necessarily prove who controls an address.
Exchange movements. A deposit to an exchange can make tokens easier to trade, but it does not prove a sale took place. Transfers are visible on-chain. An executed trade is a separate event.
Timestamped liquidity and trading data. Market depth can help show how much a large order might move the price. Derivatives measures such as open interest and futures volume describe trading activity and outstanding contracts, but they are not spot-wallet balances and do not reveal market direction on their own. Any comparison needs data from matching dates and clearly defined periods.
The proposed PEPE investment product. Canary Capital reportedly filed a Form S-1/A on October 2, 2026, under accession number 0001999371-26-022017. A registration amendment does not prove that a product has been approved, is trading or holds PEPE. Any eventual effect on token demand would depend on whether it launches and how it acquires and holds the underlying asset.
The reported position is large enough to draw attention, but a wallet estimate is not a trade signal. Ownership attribution, current balances, actual trading, available liquidity and product status are separate questions. Each needs its own evidence.
Key questions about Sun-linked PEPE holdings
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Does Arkham’s estimate prove Sun owns 2.82% of PEPE?
No. It is an attribution that includes predicted addresses, not independent proof that Sun beneficially owns every wallet in the estimate.
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How many PEPE were in the two reported withdrawals?
About 11.85 trillion combined: 7.2 trillion on October 17 and 4.65 trillion on October 26.
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Did the tokens cost $48.76 million?
That was their combined reported value when withdrawn. It does not establish the purchase price or cost basis.
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Does an exchange deposit prove a sale?
No. It shows a transfer to an exchange address, not that a trade was executed.
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What should traders watch?
Updated wallet balances and attribution, confirmed exchange activity, timestamped liquidity and derivatives data, and any verified change in the proposed product’s status. The reported PEPE price decline shows why market conditions and timestamps matter.
