Bitcoin is still trading below key on-chain cost-basis levels, and that keeps the “bottom is in” crowd on a short leash. Glassnode says BTC has spent about five months in what it calls deep value territory, but the market is still dealing with long-term holder selling, stubborn ETF outflows, and cautious derivatives positioning.
- Below key cost bases: BTC remains under $76, 600 and $72, 200
- Long-term holders are selling at a loss: pressure is still building
- ETF demand is improving, but still negative: flows haven’t fully turned
- Bottom not confirmed: Glassnode sees a late-stage bottoming process, not a done deal
That’s the setup in plain English: Bitcoin may be getting cheaper in a way that matters to on-chain analysts, but cheap does not automatically mean finished. Markets can stay ugly longer than most traders can stay solvent. A deep-value reading is interesting. A confirmed turn is something else entirely.
Glassnode says Bitcoin recently bounced from about $58, 300 to $64, 400. That’s a solid rebound, but it does not erase the bigger picture. BTC has still been trading below two major on-chain benchmarks for roughly five months, according to Glassnode: the True Market Mean near $76, 600 and the short-term holder cost basis near $72, 200.
Those levels matter because they estimate where major groups of Bitcoin holders, on average, bought their coins. When spot price sits below them for months, a lot of holders are underwater. Underwater traders tend to be patient until they aren’t.
Glassnode summed up the broader bottoming setup this way:
That is cautious, not euphoric. And it should be read that way. Glassnode is not calling a clean reversal. It is saying the market may be moving deeper into the later phase of a bear-market bottoming process, while still leaving room for more pain.
That pain is showing up most clearly in long-term holder behavior. Glassnode says the share of total realized value coming from long-term holder losses rose from 15% in early February to 43% now. In other words, investors usually thought of as the “strong hands” are increasingly part of the sell pressure.
That’s not a bullish sign by itself. Long-term holders are often slower to capitulate, but when they do, it usually means the market is still cleaning out excess supply. Sometimes that process sets up a durable bottom. Sometimes it just grinds on and embarrasses everyone who thought the worst was over three weeks ago.
Glassnode says daily long-term holder realized losses recently reached about $280 million, the highest level since December 2022. That’s a meaningful marker of stress. It suggests selling pressure is still real, not just a chartist hallucination dressed up as conviction.
The ETF picture is also better than it was, but not good enough to scream recovery. Glassnode says the 30-day average of spot Bitcoin ETF netflows improved from about $193 million in daily outflows to $88.9 million. That is less bad. It is not positive.
Why does that matter? Because U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, became one of the main institutional access points for BTC. If that channel is still leaking, Bitcoin has to work harder to build a lasting bid.
According to crypto.news, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, the worst month for the products since launch. The same outlet reported $221.7 million in net inflows on July 2, ending a 10-day outflow streak after nearly $2.7 billion in withdrawals over the prior 10 trading sessions.
That July bounce is worth watching, but one green day does not make a trend. ETF flows need to stay firm for more than a hot minute if the market is going to stop acting like it’s waiting for the next slap.
Volume tells a similar story. Glassnode says daily spot Bitcoin ETF trading volume has been running between $650 million and $950 million, about 80% below the $4.4 billion daily peak recorded in October 2025. That gap is a blunt sign that participation is still thin compared with the highs. Less volume means less conviction, and less conviction usually makes rallies easier to fade.
Derivatives positioning has also become less defensive, but not decisively bullish. Glassnode says the options market’s put/call ratio fell to 0.56, its lowest level of 2026. A put/call ratio compares bearish put buying with bullish call buying. Lower readings generally suggest traders are less focused on downside protection.
That’s mildly constructive. It does not mean traders are suddenly all-in on a new leg higher. It just means the panic trade is easing a bit. There is still enough hedging demand around to show that people are not exactly tossing confetti.
Glassnode’s broader message is simple: the market may be getting closer to the end of this bottoming phase, but confirmation is still missing. The report says a real bottom needs lower long-term holder selling, stable ETF flows, and a recovery above the key cost-basis levels near $72, 200 and $76, 600.
Until those boxes are checked, the bounce from $58, 300 to $64, 400 should be treated as what it is: a bounce. Helpful, yes. Final? Not even close.
Glassnode also says downside to the realized price near $53, 000 cannot be ruled out. Realized price is an on-chain metric that reflects the average price at which coins last moved. In plain terms, it is another rough measure of market cost basis, and it gives the market a deeper downside reference if the current recovery fizzles out.
That is the part traders hate hearing, which is usually a good reason to repeat it. Deep-value setups can go deeper. Bitcoin has done this before, and it will almost certainly do it again if the market gets too crowded with premature victory laps.
There is also a macro backdrop worth keeping in view. Glassnode notes that U.S. M2 has reached a record $22.8 trillion, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet remains about $2.0 trillion below its 2023 peak, and real yields are still near 1%. That mix matters because Bitcoin tends to benefit when liquidity is expanding and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset falls. Here, the backdrop is mixed rather than cleanly supportive.
So the honest read is this: Bitcoin looks closer to the later stages of a bear-market repair job than the start of a fresh melt-up. But repair is not completion. BTC may be in a deep-value zone. It is not yet obviously healed.
Key questions and takeaways
-
Is Bitcoin in deep value territory?
Yes. Glassnode says BTC has stayed below the True Market Mean near $76, 600 and the short-term holder cost basis near $72, 200 for about five months. -
Does deep value mean the bottom is confirmed?
No. Glassnode says the market may be in the later stages of a bottoming process, but a confirmed bottom still needs stronger demand and less selling pressure. -
What is still pressuring BTC?
Long-term holders are realizing losses, ETF flows remain net negative, and options traders are still paying for downside protection. -
Why do ETF flows matter so much?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are a major institutional access point. If they keep seeing outflows, price rallies have a harder time turning into durable trends. -
What signals would confirm a Bitcoin bottom?
Lower long-term holder selling, stable or positive ETF inflows, and a reclaim of the $72, 200 and $76, 600 cost-basis levels would strengthen the case. -
Could Bitcoin still fall further?
Yes. Glassnode says a revisit to the realized price near $53, 000 cannot be ruled out, so a deeper shakeout is still on the table.
Further reading
For more context on Bitcoin’s cost-basis setup, ETF flows, and on-chain bottom signals, these resources are worth a look:
- Bitcoin ETF inflows and market coverage on Yahoo Finance
- Glassnode market read: late-stage bottom-building phase
- Bitcoin risk indicator: Realized Price and True Market Mean
- Glassnode Week On-Chain: bottom building in progress
- Bitcoin hits $123, 000: is $150, 000 next according to realized price theory?
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs pull in $824M as Middle East tensions ease
- Bitcoin hoarders vs Ethereum traders: Glassnode reveals stark crypto divide
